Texas Tech defeated Arizona State last Saturday by a score of 52-45 (a seven point victory). Last season the Red Raiders dropped the same game by a score of 55-68 (a 13 point loss). If you compare the two results, Texas Tech was able to improve its (we'll call it the improvement margin) by 20 points.
Let's say that Tech shows that kind of improvement in every game this season. How would the 2017 Red Raiders fair.
For the purposes of this experiment we will say that Tech's “improvement margin” will improve by 20 points every home game and 15 every road game as compared to last year. For Baylor we will split the difference at 12 points.
To be clear, I'm not saying that Tech will score 20 more points per game than last season. What I am doing is using last years results and the improvement in the final score of the Arizona State game to calculate how Tech might have fared if they show that level of improvement in every game (whether that's from the offense scoring more points or the defense holding the other team to less]
*I'll just stick with the Big 12 games since Tech did not play Houston last year.
1. OKLAHOMA STATE
The Red Raiders get Orange Texas Tech at home this year. Last year the Fighting Gundies got the best of Tech 45 to 44 (-1). Texas Tech will get the pokes at home so based on our formula, the Red Raiders should win by 19 at home this year.
2. AT KANSAS
Tech won 55-19 (+31) at home last year. Being on the road this year will give Tech just 15 points instead of 20, meaning Tech would win this one by 51 points.
3. AT WEST VIRGINIA
Last years 48-17 (-31) loss at home to the Mountaineers was a tough one. It doesn't get much easier on the road this year either. After adding the 15 points to the final score margin, Tech still drops this one by 16. Ouch.
4. IOWA STATE
This was definitely the low point of last season. The Cyclones destroyed Tech 66-10 (-51). Even after adding 20 points, it's still a blowout and Tech hypothetically loses by 36.
5. AT OKLAHOMA
Here's where it really starts to get interesting. Last year Texas Tech lost a thriller at home to the Sooners 66-59 (-7). Even though Tech has to go on the road this time, our improvement margin has Tech winning by 8 points on the road.
6. KANSAS STATE
Another close loss. Bill Snyder's Wildcats won 44-38 (-6) last year. This year Tech will get the Cats at home and after adjusting the improvement margin, the Red Raiders come out on top by 14 points.
7. BAYLOR (NEUTRAL SITE)
One of the few highlights last season was dismantling Baylor 54-35 (+19) in the season finale. Our neutral site improvement margin adds 12 points to suggest that Tech will win this one by 31. Based on how Baylor is playing I would say that's pretty conservative.
8. TCU
Tech also notched a win on the road against TCU 27-24 (+3) since Tech gets TCU at home we can 20 points to give us a 23 point victory over the Frogs. (Which would be freaking awesome)
9. AT TEXAS
Last year Tech lost at home 45-37 (-8). This year we go to Austin so after adding 15, our formula predicts Tech to upset the Horns at DKR by 7 points.
Based on that experiment, Texas Tech should finish 7-2 in the Big 12. Assuming we beat Houston that would mean that Tech would finish the regular season 10-2.
Obviously there is nothing really to back up this hypothesis. The point however, is that most of our loses last year were by less that 10 points. Just the slightest improvement could mean the difference between 5-7 and 8-4. If Tech can continue to improve overall, then they may very well turn a few of those losses into wins.
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